If you thought the global financial crisis was over, don’t be too hasty. Scenario analysis by MLC Investment Management – placing probabilities against 40 different scenarios – puts the possibility of further massive falls in values for some asset classes a little too likely, or not unlikely enough, for comfort.
While not alarmist, with the most likely probability being continued recovery, the analysis illustrates the uncertainty embedded in asset values over the medium term, particularly for Australian and global equities and emerging markets. Susan Gosling, head of capital markets research for MLC, has produced a summary of the analysis to illustrate recent asset allocation adjustments to some MLC funds – the “horizon” series and long-term absolute returns fund.
If Australia’s fund members are divided into four categories as Jeremy Cooper wants them to be, there’s a good chance that much of the colour and innovation we see today could be lost. To me the most startling recommendation was the one which, in my opinion, would see just about every Australian worker not already operating a self-managed fund placed instead into a “universal” category, under which they would be sent “back to the future”.
They’d be offered only one investment strategy (confusingly the report says this should include a target-date strategy), with vanilla insurance and minimal reporting. Isn’t this the kind of thing BT Investment Management came in and broke up during the 1980s? (Well, Ian Martin is on the Review panel.) I say “just about every Australian worker” will be deemed “universal” because under the Cooper recommendations, this is where they will end up if they do not make an express choice otherwise.
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